With a steadily growing Latino population representing 31 percent of the state’s population, Arizona is becoming one of the most competitive battleground states and is a top priority for 2020. Arizona has a Partisan Voter Index score of R+5, yet the current Congressional districts are represented by 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats and is represented in the U.S. Senate by one Democrat and one Republican. Arizona voted for Democrats for President until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, which began a 66-year streak of GOP victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton’s narrow victory in 1996. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost by 3.5 percent of the vote.

Although Arizona is currently a Republican trifecta state, with the State Senate, State House and Governor all being Republican, it is not a one-party state. Republican Governor Doug Ducey won re-election in 2018 with 56 percent of the votes cast, but of the seven other statewide state-level offices, Democrats won three and Republicans won four. Republicans hold the State House by a narrow 31 to 29 margin; the Democrats narrowed the margin by four seats in the 2018 election. The state Senate has 17 Republican and 13 Democratic senators. Mobilization among Democratic Low Propensity Voters (LPVs) and Mid-High Propensity Voters (MHVs) will strengthen the outcomes for Democrats.

In 2020, there will be a special election to fill the rest of Senator John McCain’s 2017-2022 term. McCain died from cancer in August 2018. In September 2018, Governor Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain’s seat until after the Special Senate Election of November 2020. Kyl resigned as of December 31, 2018, and Ducey appointed outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally to fill the seat following Kyl’s resignation. McSally had been the Republican nominee for Arizona’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2018, but lost that race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, 50 percent to 47.6 percent, the first Democrat to win an open seat in that state since 1976. The seat will be on the ballot for a full six-year term in 2022.