MT

Montana

Montana is certainly a conservative state, but that does not necessarily translate uniformly into Republican electoral victories. With a Partisan Voting Index of R+11, Montana has a Democratic governor, one Democrat and one Republicanin the U.S. Senate, and the At-Large Member of Congress is Republican. A Democrat has not won the presidential election in Montana since Bill Clinton won in 1992, and in 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by over 20 percent with 56.2 percent of the votes.

Montanans split their tickets in 2018. Democratic Senator Jon Tester won re-election to a third term, with 50.3 percent compared to Republican Matt Rosendale’s 46.9 percent. Meanwhile on the same day incumbent Republican Congressman Greg Gianforte won re-election with 50.9 percent of the vote in his statewide at-large congressional race. Gianforte gained national attention in 2017 for attacking a reporter from The Guardian, Ben Jacobs. Jacobs alleged that Gianforte slammed him to the floor and broke his glasses during an interview at the candidate’s campaign headquarters. Gianforte was sentenced to community service and ordered to attend anger management classes and pay a $385 fine. In the 115th Congress, Gianforte was the second richest member, according to Roll Call.

In 2020, the election for Montana’s governor will be an open race, as the incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is termed out. Three Democrats have filed to run, including current Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney; State House Member Casey Schreiner; and sixth-generation Montanan Whitney Williams. Three Republicans have also filed, including State Attorney General Tim Fox; Greg Gianforte, a U.S. House of Representatives Member representing Montana's At-Large Congressional District and who Bullock beat in 2016 by 14 points; and State Senator Albert Olsezewski. Republicans hold control of the Montana State Senate, establishing a 30-20 majority in 2018. Republicans also have control of the State House of Representatives, winning 58 seats to Democrats’ 42.

In 2020, we are following the Montana Senate race because Democrats can and do win statewide in Montana. We believe that Democratic voter mobilization in 2020 could swing the Senate race to the Democrats.