In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by 9 percentage points in Texas. Texas has been won by the Republican candidate in each of the previous five presidential elections, with the widest margin of victory being George W. Bush’s 23 percent margin in 2004. The state has been a Republican trifecta since 2003, holding the governorship and majorities in the State Senate and State House.

The trend is beginning to change, however. Turnout in the November 2018 midterm general election reached historic levels, rivaling turnout in a presidential election. While the Republican Party won every statewide position, the margin of victory was narrower than in previous elections. No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was re-elected as lieutenant governor in 1994.

Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz had a surprisingly close race against Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke, narrowly defeating O'Rourke by a margin of 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent. O'Rourke earned over four million votes, surpassing Clinton’s total of 3.87 million votes in 2016. He came closer to winning than any other Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas has since 1988.

In 2018, for the first time in at least 25 years, the Texas Democratic Party fielded at least one candidate in each of the state’s 36 congressional districts, and picked up two U.S. House seats. The state’s congressional delegation changed from a 25 to 11 Republican majority to a 23 to 13 ratio. Democrats won almost 47 percent of the vote, undoubtedly influenced by the 48.3 percent that O’Rourke won.

Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a second term, defeating Democrat Lupe Valdez, the former sheriff of Dallas County. Valdez’s nomination made her the first openly gay person and the first Latina nominated for governor by a major party in the state. Abbott won a second term with the highest margin of victory of any state official on the ballot, although Valdez also won the largest vote share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards in 1994.

In the State Senate, 15 seats out of the chamber’s 31 seats were up for election in 2018. Republicans lost their super-majority in the chamber, as Democrats gained two seats, lowering the Republican majority from 21 to 10 to 19 to 12. In the State House, all 150 House seats were up for election in 2018, and the State House’s Republican majority decreased from 93 to 55 (with two vacancies) to 83 to 67.

We are following the Texas Senate race in 2020 because the trends are changing in Texas, especially in suburban areas. In 2018 we saw what focused, well-run campaigns could accomplish. We believe that Democratic voter mobilization in 2020 could swing the Senate race to Democrats.